2021 Wells Fargo Championship: PGA DFS Plays, Best Bets and Top Fades

1 week ago 23

SI Fantasy analyst Mark Farris breaks down their top PGA DFS tiers, bets, and a fade for the 2021 Wells Fargo Championship

Previous 2021 PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary

Valspar Classic: Sam Burns ($7,900) RBC Heritage: Stewart Cink ($6,700) The Masters Tournament: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,300) Valero Texas Open: Jordan Spieth ($10,700) World Golf Championship - Dell Technologies Match Play: Billy Horschel ($7,200) The Honda Classic: Matt Jones ($7,400) The Players Championship: Justin Thomas ($9,900) Arnold Palmer Invitational: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,000) Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa ($9,500) The Genesis Invitational: Max Homa ($8,200) AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Daniel Berger ($10,100) Waste Management Phoenix Open: Brooks Koepka ($8,800) Farmers Insurance Open: Patrick Reed ($10,100) The American Express: Si Woo Kim ($8,200) Sony Open: Kevin Na ($7,500) Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English ($8,700)

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$9,000+ Range

Will Zalatoris & Viktor Hovland

DraftKings Price: $9,400 & $9,800
DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +3000 & +2000

I'm staying away from the top guys - for the most part - this week. Yes, the top 5 in pricing (JT, Bryson, Rahm, Xander, and Webb) can and will contend for the top spot, but I'm going contrarian. One, because they are all gearing up for the PGA in two weeks, and two, they're expensive. Quail Hollow is a championship course with narrow fairways. Other than Webb and McIlroy, none have a lot of experience here, and McIlroy, quite frankly, isn't playing like a Top 10 player - let alone Top 5.

Will Zalatoris is hungry and playing extremely well. Being mixed in with these guys will garner lower ownership with the same potential upside as the guys more expensive than him. He's made eight straight cuts and only been outside the Top 20 in four of his last 10 events - and two of those were a 21st and a T22.

On the other hand, Viktor Hovland is going to be more popular, but I'm sticking with him because of the way he played on a comparable course last week - T3 - and the fact that he is continually proving himself on Tour. Given the top tier's quality this week, I'm hoping for some sub-$10K guys to play well.

Additional Play to Consider: Xander Schauffele ($10,500)

$7,500 - $8,900

Abraham Ancer & Brian Harman

DraftKings Price: $8,900 & $8,700
DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +3500 & +5000

I like the top of this tier more this week. Both Abraham and Brian are at the top end and sandwich another guy - Sungjae Im - that I'm likely to use in a lineup or two. Both Ancer and Harman are simply making cut after cut. Ancer has been Top 30 in each of his last seven events, including a 5th and a T18 in his last two. Again, comparable course last week and a 5th place finish.

Brian Harman is, no offense intended, a vanilla player in a field of flashy guys with huge endorsement deals and a lot of camera time. I like that. Casual players will go for the big names and not focus on a guy that's, quite frankly, killing it lately—last three events: T13, T12 & T3.

Additional Plays to Consider

Sungjae Im ($8,800) Jason Day ($8,600) Matt Wallace ($7,500)

$7,400 and Under

Ian Poulter & Charl Schwartzel

DraftKings Price: $7,300 & $7,200
DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +10000 & +15000

There isn't much here that I like and even less in the $6K range. This week will be tough since many quality names are in the field, and there isn't the soft pricing we see in majors. Ian Poulter is my "go-to" when he's below $8K. He simply grinds and usually makes cuts. When a guy is below $7,500 and makes the cut, value is paid. Plus, he's coming off a T21 last week and has two Top 30s in his last three events.

Charl Schwartzel, on the other hand, is not someone I typically recommend. However, He's made his last four cuts and, I don't know, I think I saw the light go on in his game during the Zurich team event when he was paired with Louis Oosthuizen. Again, the air is thin down here in DFS.

Additional Plays to Consider

Pat Perez ($7,000) Phil Mickelson ($6,900) - Did you ever think you’d see him at this price?

Top Fade

Rory McIlroy

DraftKings Price: $10,000
DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Odds to Win: +1900

In the past, if someone said to me, "you can pick one guy to hit a shot (not Tiger Woods) to a Par 3, and if he is within 5 feet, you win a $1,000", I'd take Rory! Now, not so much. He's struggling. He's missed his last two cuts - and three of his last five - and both of those were major events. Yes, he has a T10 and a sixth sandwiched in there, but I'm looking at recent results. He has an excellent history here, and I'm hoping this is his "get right" week going into the PGA. However, at $10,000, I'm not risking it for DFS.


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